Trade Wins or Trade Wars by Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak & Piotr Lis & Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin

Author:Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak & Piotr Lis & Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9783030769970
Publisher: Springer International Publishing

There is no surprise that the most frequently indicated consequence of signing an FTA is boosting trade flows, a benefit whose importance appears constant throughout the analysed period. Within our sample, 23 articles explicitly point at increases in exports and imports as a desirable consequence of signing a trade deal. This is followed by the closely connected benefits of improved access to foreign markets, standardisation of trade rules, and reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade. The latter two gain significance in the post-2008 literature. Interestingly, the reduction of tariffs is only the tenth most frequently cited benefit of FTAs, noted in nine articles. This shows that with tariffs being already at low levels, their elimination has not been seen as the main target for the modern FTAs, focusing on other elements of the trade environment such as regulatory barriers, investors’ rights, and dispute resolution.

The most frequently cited benefits of trade deals point towards increasing the ease of trade among nations which, indeed, is an immediate purpose of a trade deal. Nonetheless, reading the literature, it is difficult to escape an impression that boosting trade volumes is an end in itself rather than a means to achieving other ends, such as greater prosperity within society, higher living standards, or poverty reduction. In fairness, the articles do not limit their perspective only to the gains for importers and exporters, but also note consequences for the wider economy and society, albeit less frequently. For example, there is an expectation of accelerated GDP growth, rising incomes and wealth, creation of new jobs, and improved consumer welfare thanks to lower prices and greater choice of products and services. However, these issues receive far less attention, and there is virtually no discussion about how to compensate losers from international trade or share the newly generated wealth within the economy and society.

Several, mostly post-2008, articles note some less tangible benefits of FTAs such as reduced uncertainty and greater stability, both in doing business and international relations, as well as signatories’ greater geopolitical power and ability to influence the international agenda. The latter is particularly often mentioned when discussing TTIP: the authors see the US–EU trade deal as a way to assert the West’s dominance in the international economy, dictate the global trading standards, and determine the direction of future growth (e.g. Dunin-Wąsowicz, 2014; Majchrowska, 2015; Oręziak, 2015; Nacewska-Twardowska, 2017; Czarny et al., 2017). Innovation and technology transfer appear at the bottom of the benefits list, and only two publications pay them a meaningful amount of attention (Kuźnar, 2004; Ambroziak, 2016). This is rather surprising because Poland as a developing country has greatly benefited from an inflow of modern technologies and innovations which propped up entire industries, for example car manufacturing, and was often possible thanks to direct investment from developed countries.

The list of positive consequences of the FTAs is complemented by several opportunities. Nearly a third of the articles see trade deals as a chance for creating a beneficial environment for economic development. This rather vague phrase may summarise the opportunities and benefits already specified in Fig.

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